Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 61.3% vs left-shot opponents — Draisaitl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 58.7% vs Draisaitl 56.5% (+2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Draisaitl 51.9%
Defensive zone
Draisaitl 53.6%
Neutral zone
Draisaitl 55.0%
Result
Leon Draisaitl favored at 53.1%
46.9%
53.1%
Tavares
Draisaitl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Tavares
Draisaitl
Last 8: Tavares 4-4 Draisaitl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
1
Tavares
Draisaitl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Tavares
Draisaitl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
0
1
Tavares
Draisaitl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Draisaitl
Edge
Even Strength
59.2% (1,035)
57.4% (1,010)
+1.8%
Power Play
60.0% (310)
56.2% (331)
+3.8%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
54.5% (110)
-11.6%
On penalty kill, Draisaitl has a +11.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Draisaitl shoots left. Tavares is 61.3% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Tavares shoots left. Draisaitl is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (894).
Home / Away
Tavares
Draisaitl
Home
57.5% (668)
56.4% (734)
Away
61.1% (684)
57.5% (717)
By Period
Tavares
Draisaitl
P1
58.0%
55.6%
P2
60.1%
62.1%
P3
61.0%
52.4%
OT
27.8%
61.5%
Final 5 min
60.7%
55.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
59.3%
Draisaitl
62.0%▬
61.0%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2024 | 3 | 11:48 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 1 | 17:23 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 3 | 17:29 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 2 | 18:32 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 2 | 14:57 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 2 | 01:52 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 1 | 03:54 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 1 | 00:27 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |