Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +12.8% FO% edge overall. Tavares wins 61.0% vs left-shot opponents — Foligno shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.2% vs Foligno 49.2% (+12.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 53.2%
Defensive zone
Foligno 50.1%
Neutral zone
Foligno 55.6%
Result
Marcus Foligno favored at 55.6%
44.4%
55.6%
Tavares
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Tavares
Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
1
Tavares
Foligno
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (914)
46.7% (15)
+11.3%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (19)
40.0% (5)
+17.9%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +17.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Tavares is 61.0% vs left-shot opponents (766).
Tavares shoots left. Foligno is 30.0% vs left-shot opponents (10).
Home / Away
Tavares
Foligno
Home
57.8% (614)
50.0% (12)
Away
57.8% (554)
37.5% (8)
By Period
Tavares
Foligno
P1
58.0%
16.7%
P2
56.9%
85.7%
P3
58.4%
28.6%
Final 5 min
57.8%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Foligno
42.0%▲
40.5%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Marcus Foligno |