Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Foligno shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Foligno 47.3% (+7.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 76.6%
Defensive zone
Tavares 55.0%
Neutral zone
Tavares 64.2%
Result
John Tavares favored at 65.3%
65.3%
34.7%
Tavares
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Tavares
Foligno
Last 9: Tavares 5-4 Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
0
Tavares
Foligno
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
1
2
Tavares
Foligno
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Foligno
1
2
Tavares
Foligno
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,108)
47.6% (553)
+6.4%
Power Play
56.5% (4,283)
56.3% (64)
+0.2%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (620)
34.2% (76)
+16.4%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +16.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,505).
Tavares shoots left. Foligno is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (393).
Home / Away
Tavares
Foligno
Home
56.1% (10,503)
46.0% (365)
Away
52.7% (10,537)
47.9% (328)
By Period
Tavares
Foligno
P1
55.0%
48.7%
P2
54.1%
49.8%
P3
54.1%
42.7%
OT
55.9%
36.4%
Final 5 min
54.8%
46.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Foligno
42.0%▲
40.5%
46.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Marcus Foligno |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 1 | 09:34 | Neutral | Marcus Foligno |
| Oct 15, 2013 | OT | 04:34 | Defensive | Marcus Foligno |
| Oct 15, 2013 | 3 | 17:52 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 15, 2013 | 3 | 15:08 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 15, 2013 | 3 | 12:34 | Defensive | Marcus Foligno |
| Oct 15, 2013 | 2 | 08:08 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 15, 2013 | 1 | 10:55 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 15, 2013 | 1 | 00:54 | Offensive | John Tavares |