Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +10.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Scheifele on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.2% vs Scheifele 47.2% (+10.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Scheifele 59.7%
Defensive zone
Tavares 50.2%
Neutral zone
Tavares 56.2%
Result
Mark Scheifele favored at 55.4%
44.6%
55.4%
Tavares
Scheifele
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Tavares
Scheifele
Last 6: Tavares 3-3 Scheifele
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
1
3
Tavares
Scheifele
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Scheifele
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Scheifele
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Scheifele
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (914)
46.5% (878)
+11.5%
Power Play
57.0% (235)
48.3% (174)
+8.7%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (19)
50.0% (54)
+7.9%
On even strength, Tavares has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Scheifele shoots right. Tavares is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (402).
Tavares shoots left. Scheifele is 48.1% vs left-shot opponents (860).
Home / Away
Tavares
Scheifele
Home
57.8% (614)
46.2% (571)
Away
57.8% (554)
47.7% (535)
By Period
Tavares
Scheifele
P1
58.0%
51.9%
P2
56.9%
45.6%
P3
58.4%
43.9%
OT
57.7%
27.3%
Final 5 min
57.8%
47.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
46.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 16:03 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 19:45 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 06:32 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 09:30 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 07:01 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |