Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +18.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.2% vs Barzal 41.4% (+18.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 85.9%
Defensive zone
Tavares 74.7%
Neutral zone
Tavares 85.5%
Result
John Tavares favored at 85.6%
85.6%
14.4%
Tavares
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Tavares
Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Barzal
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
1
Tavares
Barzal
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (914)
40.4% (463)
+17.6%
Power Play
57.0% (235)
34.2% (38)
+22.8%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (19)
28.6% (7)
+29.3%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +29.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Tavares is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (402).
Tavares shoots left. Barzal is 38.9% vs left-shot opponents (393).
Home / Away
Tavares
Barzal
Home
57.8% (614)
38.1% (244)
Away
57.8% (554)
41.3% (264)
By Period
Tavares
Barzal
P1
58.0%
46.6%
P2
56.9%
35.7%
P3
58.4%
37.7%
OT
57.7%
0.0%
Final 5 min
57.8%
40.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
39.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 11:10 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 08:39 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 01:32 | Offensive | John Tavares |