Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +12.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Barzal 42.2% (+12.4%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 20-10 in 30 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 96.1%
Defensive zone
Tavares 89.1%
Neutral zone
Tavares 95.7%
Result
John Tavares favored at 94.5%
94.5%
5.5%
Tavares
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
10
(30 meetings)
20
10
Tavares
Barzal
Last 10: Tavares 5-5 Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
5
1
Tavares
Barzal
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
6
0
Tavares
Barzal
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
9
9
Tavares
Barzal
18 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,108)
41.9% (3,565)
+12.1%
Power Play
56.5% (4,283)
43.4% (205)
+13.1%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (620)
42.3% (26)
+8.3%
On power play, Tavares has a +13.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Tavares is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (7,535).
Tavares shoots left. Barzal is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,699).
Home / Away
Tavares
Barzal
Home
56.1% (10,503)
43.1% (1,895)
Away
52.7% (10,537)
40.9% (1,901)
By Period
Tavares
Barzal
P1
55.0%
40.7%
P2
54.1%
44.4%
P3
54.1%
41.0%
OT
55.9%
27.6%
Final 5 min
54.8%
39.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
42.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 11:10 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 08:39 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 01:32 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 1 | 19:13 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 2 | 00:25 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 2 | 16:06 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 1 | 12:37 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 1 | 12:29 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 2 | 18:14 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 21, 2022 | OT | 01:09 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 3 | 17:26 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 2 | 02:57 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Apr 17, 2022 | 2 | 10:49 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Apr 17, 2022 | 2 | 05:38 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 2 | 08:45 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 1 | 07:35 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 21, 2021 | 2 | 07:59 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 4, 2020 | 3 | 08:47 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 4, 2020 | 3 | 06:24 | Neutral | John Tavares |