Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +16.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 56.1% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs Barzal 47.4% (+16.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 83.2%
Defensive zone
Barzal 72.5%
Neutral zone
Barzal 79.9%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 81.2%
18.8%
81.2%
Tavares
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Tavares
Barzal
Last 5: Tavares 1-4 Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Tavares
Barzal
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barzal
0
3
Tavares
Barzal
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (998)
42.3% (52)
+15.4%
On even strength, Tavares has a +15.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Tavares is 56.1% vs right-shot opponents (490).
Tavares shoots left. Barzal is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (44).
Home / Away
Tavares
Barzal
Home
59.7% (610)
28.0% (25)
Away
57.0% (698)
55.6% (27)
By Period
Tavares
Barzal
P1
57.2%
47.4%
P2
58.5%
45.8%
P3
59.4%
22.2%
Final 5 min
57.0%
37.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
42.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2025 | 1 | 19:13 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 2 | 00:25 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 2 | 16:06 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 1 | 12:37 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 1 | 12:29 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |