Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +14.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Tavares wins 57.1% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 59.8% vs Barzal 46.9% (+14.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 72.6%
Defensive zone
Tavares 56.3%
Neutral zone
Tavares 71.8%
Result
John Tavares favored at 71.8%
71.8%
28.2%
Tavares
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Tavares
Barzal
Last 5: Tavares 3-2 Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
2
Tavares
Barzal
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
60.9% (1,043)
46.6% (483)
+14.3%
Power Play
60.4% (278)
40.9% (22)
+19.5%
On power play, Tavares has a +19.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Tavares is 57.1% vs right-shot opponents (511).
Tavares shoots left. Barzal is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (385).
Home / Away
Tavares
Barzal
Home
63.5% (684)
49.6% (242)
Away
57.6% (658)
43.3% (263)
By Period
Tavares
Barzal
P1
60.3%
42.4%
P2
60.4%
49.5%
P3
60.1%
47.7%
OT
92.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
57.4%
40.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
52.0%▼
57.5%
60.6%
Barzal
40.0%▼
44.5%
46.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2022 | 2 | 10:49 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Apr 17, 2022 | 2 | 05:38 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 2 | 08:45 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 1 | 07:35 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 21, 2021 | 2 | 07:59 | Neutral | John Tavares |