Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +13.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Tavares wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.9% vs Barzal 42.9% (+13.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 90.8%
Defensive zone
Tavares 73.1%
Neutral zone
Tavares 89.4%
Result
John Tavares favored at 84.8%
84.8%
15.2%
Tavares
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Tavares
Barzal
Last 7: Tavares 6-1 Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Barzal
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
1
Tavares
Barzal
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
54.8% (861)
40.7% (514)
+14.1%
Power Play
57.5% (226)
58.3% (24)
-0.8%
Penalty Kill
51.7% (29)
50.0% (10)
+1.7%
On even strength, Tavares has a +14.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Tavares is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (431).
Tavares shoots left. Barzal is 41.1% vs left-shot opponents (392).
Home / Away
Tavares
Barzal
Home
58.1% (559)
43.0% (279)
Away
52.4% (557)
40.1% (269)
By Period
Tavares
Barzal
P1
57.6%
41.2%
P2
55.5%
46.4%
P3
52.0%
37.1%
OT
80.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.7%
48.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
55.3%
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
41.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2020 | 3 | 08:47 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 4, 2020 | 3 | 06:24 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 4, 2020 | 2 | 19:12 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 13, 2019 | 3 | 08:57 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 13, 2019 | 2 | 11:22 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 13, 2019 | 1 | 14:23 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 13, 2019 | 1 | 04:02 | Neutral | John Tavares |