Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 49.1% vs Duchene 50.3% (-1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 65.6%
Defensive zone
Duchene 69.3%
Neutral zone
Duchene 62.9%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 56.6%
43.4%
56.6%
Tavares
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Tavares
Duchene
Last 9: Tavares 6-3 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Duchene
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
3
Tavares
Duchene
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (871)
49.4% (933)
-0.7%
Power Play
49.8% (243)
58.7% (104)
-8.9%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (15)
47.6% (21)
+12.4%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +12.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Tavares is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (768).
Tavares shoots left. Duchene is 49.4% vs left-shot opponents (656).
Home / Away
Tavares
Duchene
Home
50.0% (542)
51.9% (534)
Away
48.2% (587)
48.7% (524)
By Period
Tavares
Duchene
P1
52.2%
51.0%
P2
50.0%
48.8%
P3
45.1%
50.6%
OT
48.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
49.8%
50.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
52.0%▼
57.5%
49.1%
Duchene
52.0%▲
49.5%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2014 | 3 | 07:34 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 8, 2014 | 3 | 00:20 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 8, 2014 | 3 | 00:05 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 8, 2014 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 8, 2014 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 8, 2014 | 1 | 10:10 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 8, 2014 | 1 | 07:37 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 8, 2014 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 10, 2014 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |