Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Tavares wins 61.6% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs Duchene 52.1% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 69.0%
Defensive zone
Tavares 53.1%
Neutral zone
Duchene 55.7%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 69.0%
31.0%
69.0%
Tavares
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Tavares
Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Tavares
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
57.5% (914)
53.9% (193)
+3.6%
Power Play
60.5% (309)
49.2% (65)
+11.3%
Penalty Kill
59.1% (22)
100.0% (1)
-40.9%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +40.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Tavares is 61.6% vs left-shot opponents (774).
Tavares shoots left. Duchene is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (154).
Home / Away
Tavares
Duchene
Home
61.0% (661)
54.9% (113)
Away
55.3% (584)
51.4% (146)
By Period
Tavares
Duchene
P1
58.6%
54.9%
P2
57.8%
52.7%
P3
58.4%
51.9%
OT
66.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
63.4%
60.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2023 | 2 | 03:40 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |