Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 61.3% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 58.7% vs Duchene 55.6% (+2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 52.2%
Defensive zone
Duchene 63.6%
Neutral zone
Duchene 67.5%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 60.7%
39.3%
60.7%
Tavares
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Tavares
Duchene
Last 9: Tavares 3-6 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
3
Tavares
Duchene
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
1
Tavares
Duchene
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
2
Tavares
Duchene
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
59.2% (1,035)
56.5% (566)
+2.7%
Power Play
60.0% (310)
61.3% (62)
-1.3%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
22.2% (9)
+20.7%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +20.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Tavares is 61.3% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Tavares shoots left. Duchene is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (386).
Home / Away
Tavares
Duchene
Home
57.5% (668)
56.6% (318)
Away
61.1% (684)
56.4% (319)
By Period
Tavares
Duchene
P1
58.0%
57.2%
P2
60.1%
55.1%
P3
61.0%
55.6%
OT
27.8%
81.3%
Final 5 min
60.7%
47.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
59.3%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2024 | 3 | 13:19 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 7, 2024 | 2 | 09:39 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 7, 2024 | 1 | 14:52 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 7, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 3 | 08:00 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 3 | 01:55 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 2 | 19:50 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 2 | 15:06 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 2 | 02:18 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |