Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Tavares wins 59.5% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs Duchene 52.1% (+5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 75.0%
Defensive zone
Tavares 68.5%
Neutral zone
Tavares 77.9%
Result
John Tavares favored at 76.4%
76.4%
23.6%
Tavares
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Tavares
Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Duchene
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (998)
53.0% (723)
+4.7%
Power Play
60.5% (271)
49.5% (101)
+11.0%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (39)
43.8% (16)
+12.6%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +12.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Tavares is 59.5% vs left-shot opponents (818).
Tavares shoots left. Duchene is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (517).
Home / Away
Tavares
Duchene
Home
59.7% (610)
54.9% (408)
Away
57.0% (698)
50.0% (432)
By Period
Tavares
Duchene
P1
57.2%
52.5%
P2
58.5%
51.7%
P3
59.4%
53.6%
OT
46.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
57.0%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 2 | 05:44 | Offensive | John Tavares |