Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Tavares wins 61.0% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.2% vs Duchene 51.6% (+5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 57.4%
Defensive zone
Duchene 63.2%
Neutral zone
Tavares 52.0%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 57.4%
42.6%
57.4%
Tavares
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Tavares
Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Tavares
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (914)
51.2% (324)
+6.8%
Power Play
57.0% (235)
60.4% (53)
-3.4%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (19)
16.7% (6)
+41.2%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +41.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Tavares is 61.0% vs left-shot opponents (766).
Tavares shoots left. Duchene is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (242).
Home / Away
Tavares
Duchene
Home
57.8% (614)
51.6% (182)
Away
57.8% (554)
52.2% (201)
By Period
Tavares
Duchene
P1
58.0%
49.6%
P2
56.9%
56.2%
P3
58.4%
48.6%
OT
57.7%
60.0%
Final 5 min
57.8%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 11:44 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |