Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +12.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Tavares wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 50.6% vs Duchene 61.5% (-12.0%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 9-1 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 87.7%
Defensive zone
Tavares 66.9%
Neutral zone
Tavares 81.8%
Result
John Tavares favored at 76.7%
76.7%
23.3%
Tavares
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
9
(10 meetings)
1
9
Tavares
Duchene
Last 10: Tavares 1-9 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
4
Tavares
Duchene
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
4
Tavares
Duchene
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Tavares
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (1,202)
62.2% (802)
-13.5%
Power Play
59.3% (305)
67.3% (153)
-8.0%
Penalty Kill
47.9% (121)
59.4% (143)
-11.5%
On even strength, Duchene has a +13.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Tavares is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,072).
Tavares shoots left. Duchene is 60.9% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Home / Away
Tavares
Duchene
Home
52.1% (841)
66.5% (555)
Away
49.0% (787)
58.6% (543)
By Period
Tavares
Duchene
P1
52.2%
63.2%
P2
50.7%
59.6%
P3
49.7%
65.0%
OT
37.9%
71.4%
Final 5 min
51.5%
65.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
50.6%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
62.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 12, 2017 | 3 | 06:15 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 12, 2017 | 3 | 05:12 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 12, 2017 | 2 | 17:17 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 12, 2017 | 2 | 13:01 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 12, 2017 | 2 | 04:59 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 12, 2017 | 1 | 15:11 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 6, 2017 | 3 | 19:47 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 6, 2017 | 3 | 13:31 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 6, 2017 | 3 | 04:54 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 6, 2017 | 2 | 12:16 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |