Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Zibanejad on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Tavares wins 56.1% vs right-shot opponents — Zibanejad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs Zibanejad 51.8% (+6.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zibanejad 58.9%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 79.6%
Neutral zone
Zibanejad 72.1%
Result
Mika Zibanejad favored at 76.1%
23.9%
76.1%
Tavares
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Tavares
Zibanejad
Last 6: Tavares 1-5 Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Zibanejad
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
0
5
Tavares
Zibanejad
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (998)
52.9% (870)
+4.8%
Power Play
60.5% (271)
53.5% (43)
+7.0%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (39)
46.2% (143)
+10.2%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +10.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Tavares is 56.1% vs right-shot opponents (490).
Tavares shoots left. Zibanejad is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (748).
Home / Away
Tavares
Zibanejad
Home
59.7% (610)
55.1% (501)
Away
57.0% (698)
49.2% (555)
By Period
Tavares
Zibanejad
P1
57.2%
57.5%
P2
58.5%
50.7%
P3
59.4%
47.9%
OT
46.7%
66.7%
Final 5 min
57.0%
50.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 14:46 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 19:42 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 2 | 01:34 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 3 | 18:40 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 15:48 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 12:21 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |