Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Zibanejad on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.2% vs Zibanejad 51.6% (+6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zibanejad 58.7%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 87.7%
Neutral zone
Zibanejad 75.3%
Result
Mika Zibanejad favored at 75.2%
24.8%
75.2%
Tavares
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Tavares
Zibanejad
Last 7: Tavares 2-5 Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
1
Tavares
Zibanejad
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
0
4
Tavares
Zibanejad
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (914)
53.4% (770)
+4.6%
Power Play
57.0% (235)
46.2% (39)
+10.8%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (19)
44.7% (141)
+13.2%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +13.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Tavares is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (402).
Tavares shoots left. Zibanejad is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (697).
Home / Away
Tavares
Zibanejad
Home
57.8% (614)
49.0% (429)
Away
57.8% (554)
54.1% (521)
By Period
Tavares
Zibanejad
P1
58.0%
53.0%
P2
56.9%
51.1%
P3
58.4%
51.0%
OT
57.7%
60.0%
Final 5 min
57.8%
56.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | 3 | 14:09 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 2 | 05:15 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 15:34 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 19:03 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 03:52 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 10:00 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 04:20 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |