Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (68% H2H, 69 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Zibanejad 49.9% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 90-87 in 177 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 69.1%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 59.5%
Neutral zone
Tavares 51.2%
Result
John Tavares favored at 54.5%
54.5%
45.5%
Tavares
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
90
-
87
(177 meetings)
90
87
Tavares
Zibanejad
Last 10: Tavares 2-8 Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
47
22
Tavares
Zibanejad
69 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
18
43
Tavares
Zibanejad
61 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
25
22
Tavares
Zibanejad
47 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,108)
50.9% (11,719)
+3.1%
Power Play
56.5% (4,283)
52.2% (1,849)
+4.3%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (620)
41.5% (1,790)
+9.1%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Tavares is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (7,535).
Tavares shoots left. Zibanejad is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (10,678).
Home / Away
Tavares
Zibanejad
Home
56.1% (10,503)
51.6% (7,566)
Away
52.7% (10,537)
48.3% (7,793)
By Period
Tavares
Zibanejad
P1
55.0%
50.4%
P2
54.1%
49.7%
P3
54.1%
49.8%
OT
55.9%
48.7%
Final 5 min
54.8%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | 3 | 14:09 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 2 | 05:15 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 15:34 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 19:03 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 03:52 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 10:00 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 04:20 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 14:46 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 19:42 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 2 | 01:34 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 3 | 18:40 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 15:48 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 12:21 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 3 | 16:19 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 3 | 14:01 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 3 | 10:37 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 3 | 08:28 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 10:03 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 09:43 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 06:03 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |