Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 18 meetings). Tavares wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Foligno shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Foligno 48.6% (+5.8%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 18-12 in 30 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 85.1%
Defensive zone
Tavares 62.8%
Neutral zone
Tavares 83.1%
Result
John Tavares favored at 76.9%
76.9%
23.1%
Tavares
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
12
(30 meetings)
18
12
Tavares
Foligno
Last 10: Tavares 5-5 Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
12
6
Tavares
Foligno
18 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
6
5
Tavares
Foligno
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
1
Tavares
Foligno
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,108)
48.3% (2,810)
+5.7%
Power Play
56.5% (4,283)
52.3% (730)
+4.2%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (620)
44.0% (455)
+6.6%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,505).
Tavares shoots left. Foligno is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (2,496).
Home / Away
Tavares
Foligno
Home
56.1% (10,503)
49.9% (2,013)
Away
52.7% (10,537)
47.2% (1,984)
By Period
Tavares
Foligno
P1
55.0%
47.6%
P2
54.1%
50.4%
P3
54.1%
48.3%
OT
55.9%
29.7%
Final 5 min
54.8%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2025 | 3 | 14:52 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 3 | 02:46 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 2 | 05:33 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 2 | 05:16 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 1 | 12:18 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 1 | 09:30 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Dec 28, 2018 | 3 | 15:45 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 28, 2018 | 2 | 05:58 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Nov 19, 2018 | 1 | 17:39 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 13, 2018 | 2 | 17:39 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 13, 2018 | 2 | 04:10 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 13, 2018 | 1 | 03:46 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 3, 2018 | 3 | 13:13 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 3, 2018 | 3 | 03:31 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 3, 2018 | 2 | 11:08 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 14, 2017 | 3 | 11:39 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 14, 2017 | 2 | 10:50 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 14, 2017 | 2 | 09:04 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 31, 2016 | 3 | 19:26 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 31, 2016 | 3 | 09:37 | Defensive | John Tavares |