Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +9.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 59.5% vs left-shot opponents — Foligno shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs Foligno 48.6% (+9.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 64.1%
Defensive zone
Foligno 66.8%
Neutral zone
Foligno 51.9%
Result
Nick Foligno favored at 51.3%
48.7%
51.3%
Tavares
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Tavares
Foligno
Last 6: Tavares 3-3 Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
0
Tavares
Foligno
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
3
Tavares
Foligno
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (998)
48.7% (495)
+9.0%
Power Play
60.5% (271)
56.9% (65)
+3.6%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (39)
43.8% (144)
+12.6%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +12.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Tavares is 59.5% vs left-shot opponents (818).
Tavares shoots left. Foligno is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (506).
Home / Away
Tavares
Foligno
Home
59.7% (610)
49.6% (359)
Away
57.0% (698)
47.2% (345)
By Period
Tavares
Foligno
P1
57.2%
46.7%
P2
58.5%
52.7%
P3
59.4%
46.7%
OT
46.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
57.0%
55.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2025 | 3 | 14:52 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 3 | 02:46 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 2 | 05:33 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 2 | 05:16 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 1 | 12:18 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 1 | 09:30 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |