Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Tavares wins 61.0% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.2% vs Sturm 53.6% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 71.7%
Defensive zone
Sturm 84.7%
Neutral zone
Sturm 62.4%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 73.4%
26.6%
73.4%
Tavares
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Tavares
Sturm
Last 5: Tavares 1-4 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Sturm
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
4
Tavares
Sturm
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (914)
54.6% (271)
+3.4%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (19)
54.4% (90)
+3.5%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +3.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Tavares is 61.0% vs left-shot opponents (766).
Tavares shoots left. Sturm is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (243).
Home / Away
Tavares
Sturm
Home
57.8% (614)
53.0% (168)
Away
57.8% (554)
56.0% (193)
By Period
Tavares
Sturm
P1
58.0%
58.2%
P2
56.9%
53.2%
P3
58.4%
52.3%
OT
57.7%
100.0%
Final 5 min
57.8%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | 2 | 00:47 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 08:37 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 10:18 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 03:56 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 18:06 | Offensive | John Tavares |