Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (58.3% vs 58.8%). Tavares wins 59.5% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs Sturm 57.1% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 70.8%
Defensive zone
Sturm 72.7%
Neutral zone
Sturm 54.6%
Result
John Tavares favored at 53.6%
53.6%
46.4%
Tavares
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Tavares
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Tavares
Sturm
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Tavares
Sturm
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Tavares
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (998)
62.1% (356)
-4.4%
Power Play
60.5% (271)
75.0% (4)
-14.5%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (39)
38.7% (62)
+17.7%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +17.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Tavares is 59.5% vs left-shot opponents (818).
Tavares shoots left. Sturm is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (279).
Home / Away
Tavares
Sturm
Home
59.7% (610)
61.8% (191)
Away
57.0% (698)
56.3% (231)
By Period
Tavares
Sturm
P1
57.2%
58.0%
P2
58.5%
57.9%
P3
59.4%
60.6%
Final 5 min
57.0%
58.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
58.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2025 | 2 | 13:56 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 2 | 07:57 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 1 | 13:56 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 2 | 19:26 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |