Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Tavares wins 61.6% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs Sturm 55.2% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 85.9%
Defensive zone
Sturm 77.1%
Neutral zone
Tavares 65.5%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 59.5%
40.5%
59.5%
Tavares
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Tavares
Sturm
Last 6: Tavares 4-2 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Sturm
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Tavares
Sturm
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
57.5% (914)
56.1% (716)
+1.4%
Power Play
60.5% (309)
67.7% (31)
-7.2%
Penalty Kill
59.1% (22)
51.1% (133)
+8.0%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +8.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Tavares is 61.6% vs left-shot opponents (774).
Tavares shoots left. Sturm is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (592).
Home / Away
Tavares
Sturm
Home
61.0% (661)
55.6% (412)
Away
55.3% (584)
56.0% (468)
By Period
Tavares
Sturm
P1
58.6%
59.6%
P2
57.8%
52.0%
P3
58.4%
55.5%
OT
66.7%
60.0%
Final 5 min
63.4%
56.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2022 | 3 | 08:34 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 2 | 17:44 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 2 | 05:57 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 2 | 01:14 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 1 | 16:28 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 1 | 12:04 | Defensive | John Tavares |