Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Tavares wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Sturm 56.1% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 12-9 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 76.7%
Defensive zone
Sturm 89.4%
Neutral zone
Sturm 58.6%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 64.6%
35.4%
64.6%
Tavares
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
9
(21 meetings)
12
9
Tavares
Sturm
Last 10: Tavares 2-8 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
5
1
Tavares
Sturm
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
4
7
Tavares
Sturm
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
1
Tavares
Sturm
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,108)
57.1% (2,719)
-3.1%
Power Play
56.5% (4,283)
61.3% (62)
-4.8%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (620)
51.0% (498)
-0.4%
On power play, Sturm has a +4.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,505).
Tavares shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,186).
Home / Away
Tavares
Sturm
Home
56.1% (10,503)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
52.7% (10,537)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
Tavares
Sturm
P1
55.0%
56.5%
P2
54.1%
54.9%
P3
54.1%
57.4%
OT
55.9%
60.6%
Final 5 min
54.8%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | 2 | 00:47 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 08:37 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 10:18 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 03:56 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 18:06 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 2 | 13:56 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 2 | 07:57 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 1 | 13:56 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 2 | 19:26 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 3 | 08:34 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 2 | 17:44 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 2 | 05:57 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 2 | 01:14 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 1 | 16:28 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 1 | 12:04 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 24, 2022 | 2 | 16:50 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 4, 2021 | OT | 04:30 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 4, 2021 | OT | 02:35 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 4, 2021 | 3 | 17:10 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 4, 2021 | 3 | 15:13 | Neutral | John Tavares |