Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (59.3% vs 60.1%). Tavares wins 61.3% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 58.7% vs Sturm 59.0% (-0.8%)
Offensive zone
Tavares 75.4%
Defensive zone
Sturm 78.5%
Neutral zone
Sturm 53.4%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 52.2%
47.8%
52.2%
Tavares
Sturm
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
59.2% (1,035)
60.6% (708)
-1.4%
Power Play
60.0% (310)
61.1% (18)
-1.1%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
56.4% (101)
-13.5%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +13.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Tavares is 61.3% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Tavares shoots left. Sturm is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (563).
Home / Away
Tavares
Sturm
Home
57.5% (668)
61.6% (451)
Away
61.1% (684)
58.2% (376)
By Period
Tavares
Sturm
P1
58.0%
55.9%
P2
60.1%
58.9%
P3
61.0%
64.6%
OT
27.8%
70.6%
Final 5 min
60.7%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
59.3%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
60.1%