Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Tavares wins 62.7% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 59.8% vs Sturm 52.5% (+7.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 95.7%
Defensive zone
Sturm 52.9%
Neutral zone
Tavares 81.6%
Result
John Tavares favored at 74.8%
74.8%
25.2%
Tavares
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
0
(6 meetings)
6
0
Tavares
Sturm
Last 6: Tavares 6-0 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Sturm
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Sturm
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
60.9% (1,043)
54.0% (480)
+6.9%
Power Play
60.4% (278)
28.6% (7)
+31.8%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (21)
50.0% (102)
-2.4%
On power play, Tavares has a +31.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Tavares is 62.7% vs left-shot opponents (831).
Tavares shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (390).
Home / Away
Tavares
Sturm
Home
63.5% (684)
54.0% (287)
Away
57.6% (658)
52.0% (302)
By Period
Tavares
Sturm
P1
60.3%
53.5%
P2
60.4%
51.0%
P3
60.1%
55.1%
OT
92.3%
20.0%
Final 5 min
57.4%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
60.6%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
53.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2022 | 2 | 16:50 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 4, 2021 | OT | 04:30 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 4, 2021 | OT | 02:35 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 4, 2021 | 3 | 17:10 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 4, 2021 | 3 | 15:13 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 4, 2021 | 2 | 14:31 | Neutral | John Tavares |