Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 61.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hintz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 58.7% vs Hintz 55.3% (+3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hintz 50.4%
Defensive zone
Hintz 56.5%
Neutral zone
Hintz 52.6%
Result
Roope Hintz favored at 53.8%
46.2%
53.8%
Tavares
Hintz
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Tavares
Hintz
Last 8: Tavares 4-4 Hintz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hintz
0
1
Tavares
Hintz
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
1
Tavares
Hintz
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Tavares
Hintz
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Hintz
Edge
Even Strength
59.2% (1,035)
56.3% (512)
+2.9%
Power Play
60.0% (310)
63.3% (30)
-3.3%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
45.8% (24)
-2.9%
On power play, Hintz has a +3.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hintz shoots left. Tavares is 61.3% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Tavares shoots left. Hintz is 59.4% vs left-shot opponents (330).
Home / Away
Tavares
Hintz
Home
57.5% (668)
57.3% (262)
Away
61.1% (684)
55.3% (304)
By Period
Tavares
Hintz
P1
58.0%
54.8%
P2
60.1%
56.0%
P3
61.0%
57.5%
OT
27.8%
60.0%
Final 5 min
60.7%
59.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
59.3%
Hintz
64.0%▲
61.0%
56.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2024 | 3 | 11:37 | Neutral | Roope Hintz |
| Feb 7, 2024 | 2 | 00:53 | Defensive | Roope Hintz |
| Feb 7, 2024 | 1 | 03:38 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 7, 2024 | 1 | 03:21 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 3 | 19:42 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 3 | 15:36 | Neutral | Roope Hintz |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 3 | 00:16 | Offensive | Roope Hintz |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 2 | 02:38 | Neutral | John Tavares |