John Tavares vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +12.1% FO% edge overall. Tavares wins 61.5% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.8% vs Nugent-Hopkins 47.7% (+12.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 79.2%
Defensive zone
Tavares 60.1%
Neutral zone
Tavares 74.5%
Result
John Tavares favored at 74.5%
74.5%
25.5%
Tavares
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Tavares
Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Nugent-Hopkins
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
59.0% (691)
47.6% (189)
+11.4%
Power Play
57.2% (173)
100.0% (2)
-42.8%
Penalty Kill
63.6% (11)
29.4% (17)
+34.2%
On power play, Nugent-Hopkins has a +42.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Tavares is 61.5% vs left-shot opponents (579).
Tavares shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (132).
Home / Away
Tavares
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
58.0% (500)
48.5% (132)
Away
59.7% (375)
43.4% (76)
By Period
Tavares
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
59.5%
51.4%
P2
58.5%
41.3%
P3
58.2%
48.5%
OT
60.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
57.6%
44.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
52.0%▼
57.5%
58.7%
Nugent-Hopkins
48.0%▲
46.5%
46.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 18:01 | Neutral | John Tavares |