John Tavares vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +9.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Tavares wins 59.5% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs Nugent-Hopkins 48.7% (+9.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 87.5%
Defensive zone
Tavares 67.9%
Neutral zone
Tavares 69.6%
Result
John Tavares favored at 74.4%
74.4%
25.6%
Tavares
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Tavares
Nugent-Hopkins
Last 6: Tavares 5-1 Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Nugent-Hopkins
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
1
Tavares
Nugent-Hopkins
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (998)
50.3% (479)
+7.4%
Power Play
60.5% (271)
50.0% (28)
+10.5%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (39)
30.0% (50)
+26.4%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +26.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Tavares is 59.5% vs left-shot opponents (818).
Tavares shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (384).
Home / Away
Tavares
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
59.7% (610)
48.9% (270)
Away
57.0% (698)
48.1% (287)
By Period
Tavares
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
57.2%
48.7%
P2
58.5%
50.0%
P3
59.4%
47.3%
OT
46.7%
36.4%
Final 5 min
57.0%
43.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Nugent-Hopkins
58.0%▲
50.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2025 | 3 | 10:03 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 2 | 19:30 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 1 | 03:26 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 2 | 11:46 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 2 | 11:22 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 2 | 09:02 | Defensive | John Tavares |