John Tavares vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Tavares wins 61.0% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.2% vs Nugent-Hopkins 48.6% (+9.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 82.4%
Defensive zone
Tavares 62.6%
Neutral zone
Tavares 81.5%
Result
John Tavares favored at 75.5%
75.5%
24.5%
Tavares
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Tavares
Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Nugent-Hopkins
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Nugent-Hopkins
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Nugent-Hopkins
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (914)
47.6% (231)
+10.4%
Power Play
57.0% (235)
83.3% (12)
-26.3%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (19)
33.3% (21)
+24.6%
On power play, Nugent-Hopkins has a +26.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Tavares is 61.0% vs left-shot opponents (766).
Tavares shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 49.4% vs left-shot opponents (168).
Home / Away
Tavares
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
57.8% (614)
51.2% (164)
Away
57.8% (554)
43.0% (100)
By Period
Tavares
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
58.0%
50.0%
P2
56.9%
46.2%
P3
58.4%
49.5%
OT
57.7%
0.0%
Final 5 min
57.8%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Nugent-Hopkins
58.0%▲
50.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 3, 2026 | 3 | 09:50 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 3 | 06:44 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 18:01 | Neutral | John Tavares |