Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Tavares wins 53.5% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 51.2% vs O'Reilly 52.6% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 9-3 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 50.3%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 83.4%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 65.9%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 65.1%
34.9%
65.1%
Tavares
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
3
(12 meetings)
9
3
Tavares
O'Reilly
Last 10: Tavares 7-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
0
Tavares
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
1
Tavares
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
2
Tavares
O'Reilly
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (1,232)
52.5% (1,177)
-1.0%
Power Play
51.1% (305)
54.6% (130)
-3.5%
Penalty Kill
36.7% (30)
52.8% (108)
-16.1%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +16.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Tavares is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,084).
Tavares shoots left. O'Reilly is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,027).
Home / Away
Tavares
O'Reilly
Home
52.8% (781)
54.9% (669)
Away
49.9% (804)
51.0% (774)
By Period
Tavares
O'Reilly
P1
52.8%
52.4%
P2
52.1%
56.1%
P3
48.7%
49.8%
OT
63.6%
57.7%
Final 5 min
51.8%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
51.3%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
52.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2011 | 3 | 15:47 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 10, 2011 | 3 | 15:32 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 10, 2011 | 3 | 12:55 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 10, 2011 | 3 | 12:48 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 10, 2011 | 3 | 06:07 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 10, 2011 | 2 | 16:47 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 10, 2011 | 2 | 16:34 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 10, 2011 | 2 | 13:38 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 10, 2011 | 2 | 05:25 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 10, 2011 | 2 | 00:34 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 10, 2011 | 1 | 12:43 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 10, 2011 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |