Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Tavares wins 59.5% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (+2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 58.5%
Defensive zone
Tavares 55.5%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 53.3%
Result
John Tavares favored at 53.0%
53.0%
47.0%
Tavares
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Tavares
O'Reilly
Last 7: Tavares 3-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
3
Tavares
O'Reilly
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Tavares
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (998)
56.2% (983)
+1.5%
Power Play
60.5% (271)
55.5% (254)
+5.0%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (39)
52.0% (102)
+4.4%
On power play, Tavares has a +5.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Tavares is 59.5% vs left-shot opponents (818).
Tavares shoots left. O'Reilly is 57.3% vs left-shot opponents (848).
Home / Away
Tavares
O'Reilly
Home
59.7% (610)
56.2% (697)
Away
57.0% (698)
55.1% (642)
By Period
Tavares
O'Reilly
P1
57.2%
54.5%
P2
58.5%
55.5%
P3
59.4%
57.1%
OT
46.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.0%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 18:36 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 04:32 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 3 | 03:18 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 3 | 03:10 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 1 | 18:47 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |