Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Tavares wins 62.7% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 59.8% vs O'Reilly 56.4% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 11-4 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 83.5%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 63.6%
Neutral zone
Tavares 66.5%
Result
John Tavares favored at 63.3%
63.3%
36.7%
Tavares
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
4
(15 meetings)
11
4
Tavares
O'Reilly
Last 10: Tavares 8-2 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
5
1
Tavares
O'Reilly
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
2
Tavares
O'Reilly
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
1
Tavares
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
60.9% (1,043)
56.6% (1,064)
+4.3%
Power Play
60.4% (278)
60.4% (260)
+0.0%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (21)
54.0% (261)
-6.4%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Tavares is 62.7% vs left-shot opponents (831).
Tavares shoots left. O'Reilly is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,003).
Home / Away
Tavares
O'Reilly
Home
63.5% (684)
54.9% (801)
Away
57.6% (658)
58.7% (784)
By Period
Tavares
O'Reilly
P1
60.3%
58.0%
P2
60.4%
56.7%
P3
60.1%
55.4%
OT
92.3%
64.7%
Final 5 min
57.4%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
60.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2022 | 3 | 10:27 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 19, 2022 | 2 | 10:57 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 19, 2022 | 2 | 08:18 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 19, 2022 | 2 | 04:37 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 19, 2022 | 1 | 09:11 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 19, 2022 | 1 | 06:06 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 19, 2022 | 1 | 05:46 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 3 | 19:48 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 3 | 17:23 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 3 | 10:30 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 2 | 18:56 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 2 | 13:19 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 2 | 03:40 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 1 | 09:27 | Neutral | John Tavares |