Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Tavares wins 61.3% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 58.7% vs O'Reilly 53.7% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 76.3%
Defensive zone
Tavares 74.8%
Neutral zone
Tavares 67.8%
Result
John Tavares favored at 74.7%
74.7%
25.3%
Tavares
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Tavares
O'Reilly
Last 9: Tavares 7-2 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
0
Tavares
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Tavares
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
59.2% (1,035)
55.0% (1,084)
+4.2%
Power Play
60.0% (310)
56.8% (303)
+3.2%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
40.3% (149)
+2.6%
On even strength, Tavares has a +4.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Tavares is 61.3% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Tavares shoots left. O'Reilly is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (981).
Home / Away
Tavares
O'Reilly
Home
57.5% (668)
54.8% (759)
Away
61.1% (684)
53.0% (777)
By Period
Tavares
O'Reilly
P1
58.0%
55.3%
P2
60.1%
51.9%
P3
61.0%
54.2%
OT
27.8%
64.7%
Final 5 min
60.7%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
59.3%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2023 | 3 | 15:42 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 9, 2023 | 3 | 04:55 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 9, 2023 | 3 | 00:23 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 9, 2023 | 2 | 14:30 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 3 | 18:41 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 3 | 13:15 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 2 | 15:30 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 1 | 19:52 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 1 | 09:46 | Defensive | John Tavares |