Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (73% H2H, 59 meetings). Tavares wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 104-69 in 173 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 54.2%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 86.8%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 70.0%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 70.0%
30.0%
70.0%
Tavares
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
104
-
69
(173 meetings)
104
69
Tavares
O'Reilly
Last 10: Tavares 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
43
16
Tavares
O'Reilly
59 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
25
30
Tavares
O'Reilly
55 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
36
23
Tavares
O'Reilly
59 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,108)
56.2% (15,260)
-2.2%
Power Play
56.5% (4,283)
58.8% (3,445)
-2.3%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (620)
51.4% (2,811)
-0.8%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,505).
Tavares shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
Home / Away
Tavares
O'Reilly
Home
56.1% (10,503)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
52.7% (10,537)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Tavares
O'Reilly
P1
55.0%
55.6%
P2
54.1%
57.0%
P3
54.1%
55.1%
OT
55.9%
62.2%
Final 5 min
54.8%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 19:06 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 18:36 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 04:32 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 3 | 03:18 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 3 | 03:10 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 1 | 18:47 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 9, 2023 | 3 | 15:42 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 9, 2023 | 3 | 04:55 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 9, 2023 | 3 | 00:23 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 9, 2023 | 2 | 14:30 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 3 | 18:41 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 3 | 13:15 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 2 | 15:30 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 1 | 19:52 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 1 | 09:46 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 3 | 15:37 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 3 | 08:24 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 2 | 16:49 | Offensive | John Tavares |