Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Tavares wins 61.0% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.2% vs O'Reilly 54.9% (+2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 64.7%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 58.0%
Neutral zone
Tavares 59.7%
Result
John Tavares favored at 59.7%
59.7%
40.3%
Tavares
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Tavares
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (914)
55.4% (826)
+2.6%
Power Play
57.0% (235)
57.9% (221)
-0.9%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (19)
50.4% (129)
+7.5%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +7.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Tavares is 61.0% vs left-shot opponents (766).
Tavares shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Home / Away
Tavares
O'Reilly
Home
57.8% (614)
55.8% (579)
Away
57.8% (554)
54.9% (597)
By Period
Tavares
O'Reilly
P1
58.0%
57.7%
P2
56.9%
54.8%
P3
58.4%
54.3%
OT
57.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.8%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 19:06 | Neutral | John Tavares |