Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 8 meetings). Tavares wins 55.1% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 53.8% vs O'Reilly 56.2% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 12-7 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 57.5%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 85.5%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 71.2%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 61.4%
38.6%
61.4%
Tavares
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
7
(19 meetings)
12
7
Tavares
O'Reilly
Last 10: Tavares 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
8
0
Tavares
O'Reilly
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Tavares
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
5
Tavares
O'Reilly
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (1,077)
56.9% (1,203)
-2.9%
Power Play
54.5% (275)
60.2% (329)
-5.7%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (18)
50.4% (280)
-0.4%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Tavares is 55.1% vs left-shot opponents (894).
Tavares shoots left. O'Reilly is 59.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,111).
Home / Away
Tavares
O'Reilly
Home
56.8% (655)
58.6% (879)
Away
51.6% (715)
54.6% (933)
By Period
Tavares
O'Reilly
P1
54.1%
55.6%
P2
53.9%
57.9%
P3
54.3%
55.7%
OT
54.2%
62.5%
Final 5 min
54.9%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.1%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2016 | 3 | 13:28 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 9, 2016 | 2 | 11:04 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 9, 2016 | 2 | 05:10 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 31, 2015 | 3 | 18:40 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 31, 2015 | 3 | 04:32 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 31, 2015 | 3 | 00:13 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 31, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 31, 2015 | 2 | 14:38 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 31, 2015 | 2 | 14:33 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 31, 2015 | 2 | 12:16 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 31, 2015 | 2 | 12:04 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 31, 2015 | 2 | 08:37 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 31, 2015 | 2 | 06:55 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 31, 2015 | 2 | 00:08 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 31, 2015 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 31, 2015 | 1 | 14:42 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 31, 2015 | 1 | 03:02 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 31, 2015 | 1 | 02:56 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 31, 2015 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |