Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Tavares wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 50.6% vs O'Reilly 57.6% (-7.4%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 11-2 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 71.2%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 94.9%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 90.9%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 84.9%
15.1%
84.9%
Tavares
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
2
(13 meetings)
11
2
Tavares
O'Reilly
Last 10: Tavares 10-0 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
1
Tavares
O'Reilly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
1
Tavares
O'Reilly
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
0
Tavares
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (1,202)
57.9% (1,179)
-9.2%
Power Play
59.3% (305)
63.0% (292)
-3.7%
Penalty Kill
47.9% (121)
53.8% (320)
-5.9%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +9.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Tavares is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,072).
Tavares shoots left. O'Reilly is 60.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,095).
Home / Away
Tavares
O'Reilly
Home
52.1% (841)
61.3% (884)
Away
49.0% (787)
54.8% (907)
By Period
Tavares
O'Reilly
P1
52.2%
55.5%
P2
50.7%
61.0%
P3
49.7%
56.8%
OT
37.9%
67.7%
Final 5 min
51.5%
55.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
50.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
58.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2016 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 23, 2016 | 2 | 17:47 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 23, 2016 | 2 | 07:24 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 23, 2016 | 2 | 07:01 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 23, 2016 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 23, 2016 | 1 | 19:24 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 16, 2016 | OT | 00:23 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 16, 2016 | 3 | 18:45 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 16, 2016 | 3 | 09:42 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 16, 2016 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 16, 2016 | 2 | 09:44 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 16, 2016 | 2 | 04:51 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 16, 2016 | 1 | 00:38 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |