Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings). Tavares wins 56.7% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.2% vs O'Reilly 56.5% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 15-8 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 59.0%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 79.5%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 72.2%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 68.0%
32.0%
68.0%
Tavares
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
8
(23 meetings)
15
8
Tavares
O'Reilly
Last 10: Tavares 7-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
7
2
Tavares
O'Reilly
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Tavares
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
7
4
Tavares
O'Reilly
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (1,201)
57.1% (1,367)
-4.1%
Power Play
61.5% (262)
59.4% (286)
+2.1%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (65)
52.5% (257)
+1.3%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +4.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Tavares is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (970).
Tavares shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,201).
Home / Away
Tavares
O'Reilly
Home
57.5% (762)
59.2% (936)
Away
51.4% (766)
54.6% (974)
By Period
Tavares
O'Reilly
P1
54.5%
57.3%
P2
53.2%
57.5%
P3
55.5%
55.0%
OT
60.0%
71.1%
Final 5 min
57.3%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.5%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2019 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 19, 2019 | 3 | 13:30 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 19, 2019 | 3 | 07:05 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 19, 2019 | 2 | 14:24 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 19, 2019 | 2 | 08:31 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 19, 2019 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 19, 2019 | 1 | 14:28 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 19, 2019 | 1 | 14:16 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 19, 2019 | 1 | 10:28 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 19, 2019 | 1 | 10:13 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 19, 2019 | 1 | 08:50 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 19, 2019 | 1 | 06:59 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 19, 2019 | 1 | 06:49 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 19, 2019 | 1 | 03:16 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 19, 2019 | 1 | 03:00 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 19, 2019 | 1 | 02:53 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 20, 2018 | 3 | 16:55 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 20, 2018 | 3 | 12:41 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 20, 2018 | 3 | 09:03 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 20, 2018 | 3 | 00:13 | Neutral | John Tavares |