Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.2% vs Carrick 53.7% (+3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 79.6%
Defensive zone
Carrick 80.6%
Neutral zone
Carrick 55.2%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 51.7%
48.3%
51.7%
Tavares
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Tavares
Carrick
Last 8: Tavares 4-4 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
0
Tavares
Carrick
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
2
Tavares
Carrick
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
2
Tavares
Carrick
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (914)
54.9% (428)
+3.1%
Power Play
57.0% (235)
66.7% (3)
-9.7%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (19)
50.0% (50)
+7.9%
On power play, Carrick has a +9.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Tavares is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (402).
Tavares shoots left. Carrick is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (341).
Home / Away
Tavares
Carrick
Home
57.8% (614)
58.2% (225)
Away
57.8% (554)
51.2% (256)
By Period
Tavares
Carrick
P1
58.0%
55.2%
P2
56.9%
52.8%
P3
58.4%
55.4%
Final 5 min
57.8%
55.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Carrick
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 15:24 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 11:21 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 19:44 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 15:22 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 01:41 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 16:25 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 09:44 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 18:30 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |