Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +11.2% FO% edge overall. Tavares wins 57.1% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 59.8% vs Carrick 49.5% (+11.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 53.4%
Defensive zone
Carrick 86.6%
Neutral zone
Carrick 76.2%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 79.7%
20.3%
79.7%
Tavares
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Tavares
Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
1
Tavares
Carrick
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
2
Tavares
Carrick
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
60.9% (1,043)
48.9% (352)
+12.0%
Power Play
60.4% (278)
81.3% (16)
-20.9%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (21)
42.2% (45)
+5.4%
On power play, Carrick has a +20.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Tavares is 57.1% vs right-shot opponents (511).
Tavares shoots left. Carrick is 49.7% vs left-shot opponents (300).
Home / Away
Tavares
Carrick
Home
63.5% (684)
46.9% (192)
Away
57.6% (658)
51.6% (221)
By Period
Tavares
Carrick
P1
60.3%
48.1%
P2
60.4%
50.0%
P3
60.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.4%
49.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
60.6%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2022 | 2 | 16:08 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 26, 2022 | 2 | 11:20 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 28, 2021 | 2 | 11:03 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |