Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Tavares wins 56.1% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs Carrick 53.7% (+4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 86.2%
Defensive zone
Carrick 67.3%
Neutral zone
Tavares 52.7%
Result
John Tavares favored at 57.2%
57.2%
42.8%
Tavares
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Tavares
Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Carrick
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Carrick
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Carrick
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (998)
53.8% (654)
+3.9%
Power Play
60.5% (271)
0.0% (2)
+60.5%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (39)
63.9% (36)
-7.5%
On power play, Tavares has a +60.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Tavares is 56.1% vs right-shot opponents (490).
Tavares shoots left. Carrick is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (503).
Home / Away
Tavares
Carrick
Home
59.7% (610)
50.0% (328)
Away
57.0% (698)
58.0% (364)
By Period
Tavares
Carrick
P1
57.2%
56.7%
P2
58.5%
51.1%
P3
59.4%
54.8%
Final 5 min
57.0%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 19:00 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 13:43 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 09:21 | Neutral | John Tavares |