Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 11 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Carrick 52.1% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 14-8 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 89.3%
Defensive zone
Carrick 74.4%
Neutral zone
Tavares 60.1%
Result
John Tavares favored at 65.3%
65.3%
34.7%
Tavares
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
8
(22 meetings)
14
8
Tavares
Carrick
Last 10: Tavares 6-4 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
11
0
Tavares
Carrick
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
2
4
Tavares
Carrick
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
4
Tavares
Carrick
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,108)
52.1% (2,513)
+1.9%
Power Play
56.5% (4,283)
61.3% (75)
-4.8%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (620)
50.7% (430)
-0.1%
On power play, Carrick has a +4.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Tavares is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (7,535).
Tavares shoots left. Carrick is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,179).
Home / Away
Tavares
Carrick
Home
56.1% (10,503)
51.2% (1,441)
Away
52.7% (10,537)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
Tavares
Carrick
P1
55.0%
51.8%
P2
54.1%
52.2%
P3
54.1%
52.4%
Final 5 min
54.8%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 15:24 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 11:21 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 19:44 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 15:22 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 01:41 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 16:25 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 09:44 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 18:30 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 19:00 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 13:43 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 09:21 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 1 | 18:39 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 1 | 18:33 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 1 | 16:57 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 3, 2024 | 3 | 09:54 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 3, 2024 | 1 | 03:00 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 2 | 08:11 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 1 | 19:48 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 1 | 18:14 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 26, 2022 | 2 | 16:08 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |