Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Tavares wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 58.7% vs Carrick 53.0% (+5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 91.4%
Defensive zone
Carrick 70.3%
Neutral zone
Tavares 68.2%
Result
John Tavares favored at 79.1%
79.1%
20.9%
Tavares
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Tavares
Carrick
Last 5: Tavares 4-1 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
0
Tavares
Carrick
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
1
Tavares
Carrick
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
59.2% (1,035)
53.9% (521)
+5.3%
Power Play
60.0% (310)
57.1% (35)
+2.9%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
51.5% (229)
-8.6%
On penalty kill, Carrick has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Tavares is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (487).
Tavares shoots left. Carrick is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (562).
Home / Away
Tavares
Carrick
Home
57.5% (668)
52.7% (408)
Away
61.1% (684)
54.1% (377)
By Period
Tavares
Carrick
P1
58.0%
51.4%
P2
60.1%
56.6%
P3
61.0%
52.1%
Final 5 min
60.7%
57.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
59.3%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2024 | 1 | 18:39 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 1 | 18:33 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 1 | 16:57 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 3, 2024 | 3 | 09:54 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 3, 2024 | 1 | 03:00 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |