Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Lafferty shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.9% vs Lafferty 49.7% (+5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 85.6%
Defensive zone
Lafferty 60.5%
Neutral zone
Tavares 73.4%
Result
John Tavares favored at 68.9%
68.9%
31.1%
Tavares
Lafferty
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Tavares
Lafferty
Last 7: Tavares 5-2 Lafferty
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
0
Tavares
Lafferty
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lafferty
0
2
Tavares
Lafferty
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Lafferty
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Lafferty
Edge
Even Strength
54.8% (861)
51.5% (204)
+3.3%
Power Play
57.5% (226)
41.7% (12)
+15.8%
Penalty Kill
51.7% (29)
35.0% (20)
+16.7%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lafferty shoots right. Tavares is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (431).
Tavares shoots left. Lafferty is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (178).
Home / Away
Tavares
Lafferty
Home
58.1% (559)
49.2% (124)
Away
52.4% (557)
50.0% (112)
By Period
Tavares
Lafferty
P1
57.6%
48.9%
P2
55.5%
48.1%
P3
52.0%
51.6%
OT
80.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
54.7%
43.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
55.3%
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 20, 2020 | 3 | 14:14 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 20, 2020 | 2 | 10:01 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 3 | 13:05 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 2 | 03:26 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 2 | 03:14 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 1 | 18:12 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 1 | 10:22 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |