Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Tavares wins 61.0% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.2% vs Monahan 52.8% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 78.0%
Defensive zone
Monahan 50.5%
Neutral zone
Tavares 72.7%
Result
John Tavares favored at 68.4%
68.4%
31.6%
Tavares
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Tavares
Monahan
Last 10: Tavares 7-3 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
2
Tavares
Monahan
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
1
Tavares
Monahan
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Monahan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (914)
53.2% (823)
+4.8%
Power Play
57.0% (235)
55.3% (159)
+1.7%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (19)
48.4% (95)
+9.5%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Tavares is 61.0% vs left-shot opponents (766).
Tavares shoots left. Monahan is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (676).
Home / Away
Tavares
Monahan
Home
57.8% (614)
54.6% (529)
Away
57.8% (554)
51.6% (548)
By Period
Tavares
Monahan
P1
58.0%
49.0%
P2
56.9%
55.4%
P3
58.4%
53.6%
OT
57.7%
61.9%
Final 5 min
57.8%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2025 | OT | 01:15 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 13:30 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 14:09 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 03:08 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 20, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 14:07 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 19:39 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 05:20 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 05:12 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 3 | 04:02 | Defensive | John Tavares |