Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 61.6% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs Monahan 53.9% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 56.7%
Defensive zone
Monahan 63.7%
Neutral zone
Monahan 66.2%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 60.9%
39.1%
60.9%
Tavares
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Tavares
Monahan
Last 5: Tavares 1-4 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Tavares
Monahan
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
3
Tavares
Monahan
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
57.5% (914)
54.5% (231)
+3.0%
Power Play
60.5% (309)
58.2% (67)
+2.3%
Penalty Kill
59.1% (22)
52.2% (23)
+6.9%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Tavares is 61.6% vs left-shot opponents (774).
Tavares shoots left. Monahan is 56.9% vs left-shot opponents (216).
Home / Away
Tavares
Monahan
Home
61.0% (661)
53.5% (144)
Away
55.3% (584)
56.5% (177)
By Period
Tavares
Monahan
P1
58.6%
52.5%
P2
57.8%
50.9%
P3
58.4%
60.8%
OT
66.7%
100.0%
Final 5 min
63.4%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
55.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2022 | 3 | 14:19 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 12, 2022 | 3 | 09:30 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 12, 2022 | 3 | 00:53 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 12, 2022 | 2 | 19:56 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 12, 2022 | 1 | 04:41 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |