Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 59.5% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs Monahan 52.4% (+5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 83.8%
Defensive zone
Tavares 73.4%
Neutral zone
Tavares 65.4%
Result
John Tavares favored at 72.5%
72.5%
27.5%
Tavares
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Tavares
Monahan
Last 6: Tavares 5-1 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Monahan
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
0
Tavares
Monahan
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Tavares
Monahan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (998)
52.4% (853)
+5.3%
Power Play
60.5% (271)
58.6% (174)
+1.9%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (39)
46.5% (144)
+9.9%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Tavares is 59.5% vs left-shot opponents (818).
Tavares shoots left. Monahan is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (782).
Home / Away
Tavares
Monahan
Home
59.7% (610)
53.4% (624)
Away
57.0% (698)
51.7% (547)
By Period
Tavares
Monahan
P1
57.2%
53.7%
P2
58.5%
52.4%
P3
59.4%
51.6%
OT
46.7%
57.1%
Final 5 min
57.0%
49.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2025 | 3 | 16:27 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 2 | 18:03 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 2 | 14:09 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 2 | 10:29 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 03:55 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 10:37 | Defensive | John Tavares |