Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (61% H2H, 57 meetings). Tavares wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Monahan 51.3% (+3.1%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 94-78 in 172 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 65.5%
Defensive zone
Tavares 51.7%
Neutral zone
Tavares 56.9%
Result
John Tavares favored at 57.7%
57.7%
42.3%
Tavares
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
94
-
78
(172 meetings)
94
78
Tavares
Monahan
Last 10: Tavares 7-3 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
25
26
Tavares
Monahan
51 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
35
22
Tavares
Monahan
57 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
34
30
Tavares
Monahan
64 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,108)
51.1% (11,356)
+2.9%
Power Play
56.5% (4,283)
53.7% (2,580)
+2.8%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (620)
46.0% (766)
+4.6%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +4.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,505).
Tavares shoots left. Monahan is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (9,301).
Home / Away
Tavares
Monahan
Home
56.1% (10,503)
52.4% (7,358)
Away
52.7% (10,537)
50.2% (7,344)
By Period
Tavares
Monahan
P1
55.0%
50.9%
P2
54.1%
51.7%
P3
54.1%
51.0%
OT
55.9%
53.5%
Final 5 min
54.8%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2025 | OT | 01:15 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 13:30 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 14:09 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 03:08 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 20, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 14:07 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 19:39 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 05:20 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 05:12 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 3 | 04:02 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 3 | 16:27 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 2 | 18:03 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 2 | 14:09 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 2 | 10:29 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 03:55 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 10:37 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 11, 2023 | 2 | 03:20 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 11, 2023 | 1 | 04:15 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 12, 2022 | 3 | 14:19 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 12, 2022 | 3 | 09:30 | Offensive | John Tavares |