Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +14.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — Jarvis shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 58.7% vs Jarvis 45.8% (+14.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 95.0%
Defensive zone
Tavares 65.0%
Neutral zone
Tavares 87.5%
Result
John Tavares favored at 95.0%
95.0%
5.0%
Tavares
Jarvis
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Tavares
Jarvis
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
0
Tavares
Jarvis
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Jarvis
Edge
Even Strength
59.2% (1,035)
46.2% (171)
+13.0%
Power Play
60.0% (310)
51.9% (54)
+8.1%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
39.4% (127)
+3.5%
On even strength, Tavares has a +13.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jarvis shoots right. Tavares is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (487).
Tavares shoots left. Jarvis is 44.6% vs left-shot opponents (303).
Home / Away
Tavares
Jarvis
Home
57.5% (668)
46.1% (204)
Away
61.1% (684)
42.6% (148)
By Period
Tavares
Jarvis
P1
58.0%
42.5%
P2
60.1%
42.9%
P3
61.0%
48.7%
Final 5 min
60.7%
46.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
59.3%
Jarvis
40.0%▲
38.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2024 | 2 | 19:21 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 1 | 15:53 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 1 | 15:41 | Offensive | John Tavares |